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Effects of the weak USD
Effects of the weak USD
The Confusion
In our recent history we are constantly hearing the debate about a strong Dollar policy and a weak Dollar policy. Republicans and democrats cannot agree on this topic and both sides of the argument present quick-witted implications. How should we as a consumer know what is going on? Who loses and who wins from a weak Dollar?
How the weak Dollar can boost the economy
The Plaza Accord in 1995 has showed us how the value of the Dollar can be reduced artificially. The G5 – Germany, the US, France, Japan and the UK, have met to jointly draft a strategy to weaken the Dollar due to the mounting trade deficit and the recession that persisted in the United States. Over the next two years, the Dollar lost 51% of its value, which has stimulated a huge increase in US exports. It is also said to have strengthened the economy by decreasing the trade deficit, creating new jobs and attracting tourism as well as foreign direct investment.
The biggest winners of a weak Dollar are companies that have a lot of foreign sales. When repatriating earnings their revenue is higher due to large earnings from currency conversions. Weakening one’s currency, however, can have many negative effects. Other nations, for instance, might also weaken their currency as a reaction to the weak Dollar through Central Bank intervention and other measures. This is referred to as the “protectionism web” and occurred during the depression years. These actions contracted the whole economy instead of increasing the GDP.
The continued fall of the Dollar
We have seen an almost continuous fall of the USD since 2001. Many people including politicians, economists, and other specialists have told us not to worry about it. Conversely, others warn about the negative implications. Most importantly, we – the US consumer – loose purchasing power and thus have a decline in real income, which is not often directly felt or experienced. With a weak Dollar, it costs more to buy foreign products. Since Americans buy more overseas than they produce domestically, the price increase will be passed on to the consumer. In short, based on past and current exchange rates, in order to buy a good priced at 100 Euros, about 86 Dollars were needed in 2002. Now, in order to buy the same good, about 140 Dollars are necessary. The price increase is very obvious. Also, the trade deficit will get worse as American consumers keep buying and buying goods from other countries.
When the Dollar is weak, oil goes on sale. This occurs because oil is priced in Dollars and thus, it this works inflationary making the Dollar even weaker. Furthermore, the weak Dollar has forced US consumers to travel less abroad. Whether or not these individuals choose to spend their vacation in the US and thus spur the economy is questionable. People who do travel abroad find themselves looking for savings and other great deals because they realize how “expensive” everything is overseas. Europe represents the best example. Having recently traveled to Germany myself I was shocked about the exchange rate – I felt like being ripped off.
The weak USD is also directly related to the US national debt. As we all know, our debt is continuously rising. We have just recently seen the debate about the debt ceiling, which has almost caused the government to shut down. The debt ceiling was previously set at 13.3$ trillion but had to be renegotiated since the debt was reaching that number. In order to finance our debt, the US government issues government bonds. Investors in China and Japan are the main US debt holders looking for a save place to put their money into. The US capital markets have become more attractive to foreign investors, however, in order to keep attracting investors, especially the ones that buy our debt, interest rates on these Treasury Securities have to rise which in turn makes it more expensive for American consumers to borrow. The recent trend towards investing in other asset classes, especially real estate, has shown how foreign investors move away from bonds towards a safer investment vehicle.
The Solution
Having a Federal Funds Rate of 0% makes it very attractive for individuals and corporations to borrow money and to invest and spend it; however, the low rate hurts the Dollar. Raising the Federal Funds Rate will contribute to strengthen the Dollar. No nation’s economy has ever continuously grown with a weak currency. Having a strong currency is an indicator of a strong economy and therefore, we will most likely see an increase in the Federal Funds Rate in the near future. This means that people will spend less and save more. Also, our debt will increase further, as the low interest rates have kept our interest payments on debt relatively low.
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Does the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame really matter?
Many people make a great big deal over the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. I used to make a big deal of watching it on TV every time I got the chance. But what has really struck out at me over the years is this; why are some very good bands NOT in this hall of fame and why are some bands that really didn’t play rock in the Hall of Fame? I am not saying that all the artists and bands in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame shouldn’t be there. There are many great bands but there are TOO many bands that are simply there because of they’re popularity and not for their rock music being that they played pop, dance, or rap. Of course you have to let blues and old school R & B (rhythm and blues) into the hall as these blues and R & B acts and styles influenced rock and were the grandparents of rock. But at some point, how far are people willing to go before they pervert and change an idea so bad that it eventually becomes unrecognizable.
Case in point. Madonna. I remember hearing on TV and reading articles where people were calling her a “rock star.” As someone who has a great fondness for rock and one who appreciates the many different levels, styles, and examples of rock, I thought this statement was a bit absurd. But as they say in politics, if you repeat something over and over, eventually people believe it. And as years have gone by now (25), people are calling just about anyone a “rock star.” One of the biggest bubble gum pop songs right now in the world is “Rock Star” by Rihanna, then there is “Rock Star” by Prima J, and ”Rock Star” by Hanna Montana, and many more.
So let’s take a look at who is in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame who I would consider to be pop, bubble gum, dance, or something not even closely related tp rock:
- Abba
- The Bee Gees
- Earth Wind and Fire (I love them but come on, it’s not rock)
- Michael Jackson
- Madonna
- Run D.M.C.
I could add a few more but it would have been a grey area for most people. Let’s just look at this list above. These bands / artists are in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
Now let’s look at who is NOT in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. These are some of the biggest bands and artists. Why aren’t they in? Bands in bold are bands I believe that should have been inducted years ago.
The list:
- Bad Company - one of the greatest bands. Not these guys but Madonna?
- Cheap Trick
- Chicago
- Joe Cocker
- The Cure
- Deep Purple – as long as they are not in. Who could take the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame seriously
- Peter Frampton
- Heart
- Journey
- Kiss
- Moody Blues
- Willie Nelson - Yes, he is country but he has written and played for everyone not to mention he HAS lived the rock star life. We love him.
- T. Rex
- Todd Rundgren
- Rush – once again - as long as they are not in. Who could take the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame seriously
- Stevie Ray Vaughan
- Yes – Just the fact that Yes, Deep Purple, Bad Company, and Rush are not in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame makes me sick
The list is much longer but I kept out bands that weren’t of a more rock influenced element. If we did the list in a larger context, it would look like this:
- The B-52s
- Bad Company
- Bon Jovi
- Joan Baez
- Pat Benatar
- The Cars
- Cheap Trick
- Chicago
- Joe Cocker
- The Cure
- Deep Purple
- Depeche Mode
- Devo
- E.L.O.
- Peter Frampton
- Peter Gabriel
- Foreigner
- The Guess Who
- Hall and Oates
- Heart
- Joan Jett and the Blackhearts
- Journey
- Kiss
- Los Lobos
- Moody Blues
- Willie Nelson
- The Raspberries
- Red Hot Chili Peppers
- The Replacements
- T. Rex
- Todd Rundgren
- Rush
- The Smiths
- Stevie Ray Vaughan
- Jimmy Buffett
- Warren Zevon
The whole thing astounds me. Bands like Genesis and Black Sabbath were rejected many times while pop bands get in. I’m not even a big fan of Black Sabbath but I know the facts; and the facts are that Black Sabbath has millions of fans, has sold millions of records, and has influenced millions of bands around the world including some of the most biggest and best bands. Why isn’t Yes or Bad Company in? Why have Rush and Stevie Ray Vaughan been rejected and the fact that Deep Purple is not in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is ludicrous. Are you kidding me?
I will never take the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame seriously. Look at all the bands that have been accepted like Madonna, Abba and Michael Jackson while bands like Bad Company, Chicago, T. Rex, Yes and Todd Rundgren have been rejected. It’s a disgrace. You can’t call i t a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. You should call it a Rock and Roll Hall of Shame for the people who decide who is in.
Does the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame really matter? I would have to say no. What matter is what you and I (the individual) do. What matters are the songs we buy, the tickets to shows we buy, and the comments of appreciation we give to bands and artists when we see them. Having one of our favorite bands be in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame means nothing. I’m no fan of KISS but if you were a fan, would you be less of a fan because they aren’t in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame? Of course not. It really doesn’t matter.
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After the White House Corespondent’s Dinner
I’m just curious as to why someone can’t answer the simple questions asked of all these people and is Brett Bare really an adult? He looks like he is 11 years old.
Posted in U. S. Politics
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Osama bin Laden is dead.
Yes. It has been confirmed and the President of The United States just gave a speech on live TV announcing that U.S. special forces including the CIA have killed Osama bin Laden. It is now Sunday night, May 1st 2011.
The first thing that comes to my mind after, “Wow. I wonder why or how Bush couldn’t get this guy?” … and, “Obama really seems ready to pull that trigger doesn’t he?” … is this; cutting off a limb doesn’t stop the tree from growing. I’m glad that this guy who “supposedly master minded the September 11th” attack on the United States is finally killed. But this takes me back to the days following September 11th and the attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. I seem to remember a speech given by the then leader of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf.
Pervez Musharraf said in a speech soon after September 11th 2001 that the United States needed to “uproot the tree of terrorism” and not just cut off the “branches and leaves.” If one was to do a search for “tree of terrorism” you would also come up with the story of Gary Kasparov, the famous chess player, who supposedly asked Pervez Musharraf why he was allowing his country to “water” this “tree of terrorism.” Either way, it doesn’t matter to me who started the concept or asked first using the phrase “tree of terrorism.” The concept is the most important thing on my mind right now.
Many people right now reading this would say, “Hey. Shut up already. We got him. Can’t you be happy for that for one minute.”
And I would say back, “No. This takes us off the main focus of what our main problem is which is that much of the world hates us. Why? Because we (as well as the English, the French, etc…) have supported dictators who have oppressed their people’s for decades if not hundreds of years. And Obama is just a figure head. And if you cut that head off, many more heads will appear. So I go back to the tree of terrorism analogy. If you cut the branches and leaves off, don’t you still have a tree? You need to uproot that tree. You need to take it down completely.
I am by no means one of those who is a part of the “hate America first” crowd or thinks that the whole world’s problems are because of the United States. No. I think the United States is a great country. I think the United States is one of the most generous countries. After Iran had an earthquake 15 years ago, there were actually large donations and help coming from the United States to Iran. Think about that. After all the hate, funded terrorism, and chest pumping from Iran towards the U.S. (as well as holding Americans captive for one year 30 years ago), it is amazing that Americans still want to help. But this is what make as America so great. We offer a helping hand to everyone. All that being said, I think that through a very lopsided and “corporate dollar first over other country’s citizens” approach to our foreign policies has lead to a certain type of failure.
Some would argue that our foreign policy has been a great success, especially for American companies. I would say that it was a great success in terms of profit for our companies working out of Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East; but it has to be seen as a failure when you think of how much hatred other countries have towards us for supporting dictators in these countries who systematically crush any democratic grass roots movement. Our country has assassinated foreign leaders who have opposed our corporate interests there.
You really have to face this head on. You can ignore it and say, “Ah, just bomb them all.” Sure. That would be like pouring gasoline on a fire. You could say, “They don’t like our freedom.” A talking point from the G.W. Bush era. That talking point is actually quite absurd. Why would someone want to bomb you because they don’t like your freedom? They (people from African, Middle Eastern, East Asian and Asian countries) have lived in oppressed countries where a family member can be taken away at night and never seen again for his political beliefs or religious beliefs. People living in squalor and dirt who have nothing to live while being oppressed by a ruthless dictator who has killed many of their family members…. yes… this is how people come to hate the U.S. We have to see this for what it is. We have to admit that we have supported nasty, inhuman leaders who have crushed their people all in the name of big corporate or military strategic interests.
Think about this; before Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, there was a democratically elected leader. What happened to him? Saddam Hussein overthrew him with the support of English and American intelligence. And now think about Iran. In 1951 Mohammad Mosaddegh was the democratically elected leader. But he wanted to nationalize the oil industry so his own people could benefit. Winston Churchill on behalf of British Petroleum had Dwight D. Eisenhower (then president of the U.S.) create “Operation Ajax.” Operation Ajax was the overthrowing of a democratically elected leader in Iran all because of oil. So you had the Shah of Iran ruling with an iron fist for decades crushing all forms of political opposition not to mention his killing and torturing his own people.
So if we had not intervened in Iraq and Iran 50 years ago, you would have had two democratic countries which would have had great influence on their neighbors and therefore possibly having a completely different world dynamic other than what we have now. If we supported true democracy around the globe instead of supporting dictators in the name of corporate profit, we probably would still have the World Trade Center Towers and nothing out of the ordinary would have happened on September 11th 2001.
So Osama bin Laden is dead. I’m asking that people think about one thing; a branch with leaves has been cut off. The tree still stands and many new leaves are springing up every day. What are we doing to take this tree down? Or will we keep our heads in the sands until another terrorist attack levels a city. I say this… we need to truly support democracy around the world. The people in Syria are ready for democracy. The people in Iran are ready for democracy. The people in Egypt have spoken and have thrown out the U.S. supported dictator. The people in Libya have spoken and are trying to throw their dictator out. The United States needs to support freedom for all people around the world or we will never live in freedom but live in fear of terrorism.
And this is all coming from a man (me) who is far from that anti-U.S. left. I am a gun rights supporter. I have many views which some would consider to the right and some to the left. I consider myself an independent thinker. I love my country I was born in; the United States of America. But I am not blind and have the knowledge of our checkered past of supporting bad rulers around the globe. Now is the time for a positive change to our foreign policy. Yes, Osama bin Laden is dead. But is the last? No. We need to get the rest of the world on our side again like it was before, during, and right after World War II. We need to stand up for truth and freedom for all; not just us.
Posted in Our World
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Donald Trump – Douchebag or Hero?
First off I have to say this; I feel like when you are talking about Donald Trump, you are talking about a celebrity and not a politician. He could spend a billion dollars spewing out TV commercials and print advertisements but I will always think of him as a celebrity. It’s not just his TV show “The Apprentice.” It’s not just his owning the Miss Universe Pageant. It’s not his being on other TV shows including late night shows. I think it’s mostly his trying his whole life to be the most famous, richest, and arrogant elite celebrity that has ever been. And you know what? He succeeded. Yes indeed; he has proven to me in the last twenty years that he is one of the biggest celebrities in the world.
And now for the meat. What most people do NOT know about Mr. Trump is that his father started this “Trump real-estate business”. The Donald was born with an exquisite silver spoon in his mouth. He was born into a very successful family business worth millions. But he didn’t make as many good business decisions as his father did. In the late 1990′s he had to file chapter 11 bankruptcy for one of his casino’s as it was built using junk bonds. These days there are many “Trump” towers going up across the country but what most people don’t know is that The Donald licenses his name out. A great example of this is the “Trump Tower” in New Rochelle, New York. This was built and is primarily owned by real-estate developer Louis Capelli. Mr. Trump just whores his name out to whoever he can. Recently I saw a “Trump” DVD business course, and a “Trump” package or product online for sale. You see, he is very much like Madonna or Howard Stern. It’s all about self promotion and marketing yourself as THE name or product people should be talking about. The reality is that Donald Trump is and has not been as successful as people think. He is at a place now where he probably realizes that licensing his name out is much safer than opening up casinos. I really don’t think he is the smartest business man. He is more of let’s say… the smartest promoter. He is a white version of Don King (the boxing promoter for people who don’t follow boxing).
His voting record is really not that good for someone who is “supposedly” looking into running for office. He didn’t vote for a general election, didn’t vote for primaries for 21 years, and all he can add to this is to deny and make excuses.
Should he be a hero for making people talk about the “birther” issue? No. I think I have to agree with most Republicans and all Democrats when I say this is not a real issue let alone one we should be focusing on while The United States is crashing and burning in a financial meltdown.
Should he be a hero for making us talk about Obama’s school records? Oh please. Where was The Donald when George W. Bush was running for office? Didn’t hear him complain than. By the way, where are Donald’s school records? How well did he do in school and how much did his dad help him get by in life? I’m just curious. Tell me Donald.
Should he be a hero for making our country talk about why we are protecting much of the world and getting nothing in return? Well, this is the only area of anything he ever says that makes me think and say, “Yes… we should be talking about this.” But this doesn’t nake him a hero nor does this qualify him to run for office. My friend’s son has many great ideas or questions pertaining to why our country does this or that but it doesn’t make me think he should run for office.
I really think as a county, the United States should either be compensated monetarily or with resources for protecting or helping other countries. But there is a fine line between that and many things: imperialism, taking advantage of other countries, not helping those in need because they have nothing to offer (like Rwanda), or letting China become the country of choice in the entire world. As our country goes broke, we should ask that other countries help us as we help the world.
Now is Donald Trump a douchebag? Well, apart from that idea of the world helping us as we help the world, I would have to say yes. He is a douchebag. This is not really about the “birther” issue. I know for many people that was enough. For me it’s the constant attack on anyone who has anything to say about him. First there was the Donald versus Rosie fight. Now it is Donald versus the world. He has attacked Jerry Seinfeld, Robert De Niro, Seth Myers, Mitt Romney, David Letterman, etc… I’m losing track of who he is attacking. At the pace he is going, he will be attacking about 250 famous people for daring to speak about anything The Donald says. And this includes many big people in the business. What a good way to start your political career out while throwing your celebrity status in the toilet. What celebrity is going to want to be associated with someone who is the scourge of most other celebrities? I know many people are going to say f$#k celebrities. Well, for me it’s not about that. It’s about looking at a man who is so absorbed with himself that he can’t stop himself. It’s about looking at someone and saying to yourself, “Wow. Is he really that stupid?” . He could just shut up for a while and take it like most people do. But he can’t help himself. Then I say, “Is he really that full of himself.” I think it’s both. I think he’s just a douchebag.
What most people do not realize is that he knows he can’t win the presidential race and so this is all for his brand name and ratings for his TV show. Playing around with the office of president while ruining one of the political parties all in the name of personal profit is enough for me to say again, yes… he is a douchebag.
Posted in People
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Should the older generation musicians still tour?
What’s up with Buddy Guy? He wants to go on tour but he doesn’t want to play? He has this 12 year old boy named Quinn Sullivan play with him. And this kid plays and plays and plays.
I should have started this article by saying, “This is an article I am going to hate to write but I feel impelled to do so.” Why? Because I love Buddy Guy (his music at least). Sometimes when he plays, I am moved to tears. I want to cry. But if I am going to see him play, I don’t want the night to be all about a 12 year old boy and watch Buddy take a back seat to the show.
I have nothing against Quinn. He is a very talented player. He really is and I wish him the very best as a guitar player and performer. But I want to see Buddy Guy, not Quinn Sullivan.
Here is a very good example of what I am talking about. Two years ago I went to the Beacon Theater with a few friends to see B.B. King and Buddy Guy. What happened was this; Buddy Guy played about three songs and then he brought out the 12 year old prodigy Quinn Sullivan. This Quinn kid played most of the guitar solos for the rest of the set. Then B.B King came out and sang for three songs. He really didn’t play more than eleven notes. (Now I am a big fan of B.B and know someone who told me he has bad arthritis, so I am not going to complain about his lack of guitar playing). After those three songs B.B King said he was bringing out Buddy Guy (the moment we were all waiting for). And what do you know, here comes Quinn Sullivan. As a matter of fact, Quinn Sullivan actually played most of the guitar solos for the rest of the night as B.B and Buddy sat there and laughed. Well, there was a bit of turmoil where I was sitting. Some of my friends got pissed off and left (missing the last two songs) and some of my friends stayed. I’m not really going to tell if I stayed or not.
My point is this; I understand that some of my favorite guitar player/ favorite blues players are getting old. Sure. I understand this. And I am sympathetic. I would be happy if Buddy Guy sat back while someone else played a song or two. But to pay $100 a ticket and to have a 12 year old play most of the night. Yikes! I don’t think so.
And now Buddy Guy is playing again in the area here. I was about to buy tickets and called a friend of mine. He asked one question, “Is that kid playing with him?” I said I don’t know. Then I contacted Buddy’s “people” who informed me that Quinn Sullivan will probably open up with a set. Which means to me that he will also come into Buddy’s set. Which makes me think, “Is Quinn Sullivan going to be playing most of the solos again?”
Well, I hate to say this. I mean I REALLY hate to say this because I really love Buddy Guy’s music….. but I think I will miss this series of shows. I’ll find a good live CD and reminisce of the great Buddy Guy shows of the past.
5-1-11 update – A friend of mine went to one of the recent shows in the area and said that the show they saw was was almost exactly like the one I saw with B. B. King and Buddy Guy. Buddy played a few songs and then brought his young protégé who played the rest of the night. Oh well.
Posted in Music
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